Table Finder
Coming from a no-limit hold’em background, I wasn’t quite sure what to expect when I sat down at my first heads up PLO match. I knew PLO had a reputation of having a ton of variance. I figured that the downswings are probably going to be extra soul-crushing and the heaters will be hotter than the sun. But just how much more variance are we talking about here?
PLO vs. NLHE Average Pot Sizes
The graphs below compare the average pot size for PLO and NLHE. The data is averaged from a gazillion hands on the PTR database.
“Nosebleed PLO is like going through a carwash on a unicycle.” – Jay ‘Pr1nnyraid’ Rosenkrantz
At low-midstakes, the average pot size for PLO is pretty much double that of NLHE. So even accounting for the times that it’s just folded preflop, the average pot at $.5/$1 PLO, is $20 (1/5 of your entire stack)!
Another common metric to measure variance is standard deviation. My standard deviation in HU NLHE is 75bb/100. My standard deviation for HU PLO is 130bb/100. Again, the variance of PLO is roughly double that of NLHE.
Why does PLO have twice the variance? I can think of at least 3 reasons:
- The nature of the game.
- You hold 4 cards, but you can actually use them 6 different ways (AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD)
- People love mashing the “Bet Pot” button
“And how do you deal with all that variance?” you ask. Here are 3 tips:
- Have at least 1.5x the bankroll you would use for NLHE. In other words, if you have a 30 buy-in roll for NLHE, you should have a 45 buy-in roll for PLO.
- Being on the downside of variance often leads to tilt – learn to master your emotions (I highly recommend Mind Gym by Gary Mack).
- Play smaller stakes, but more tables
- Bonus Tip: Play on FullTilt for stakes below $0.5/$1. Play on Pokerstars for $1/$2 PLO and above.
There’s no doubt that you’re in for a bumpy ride if you play PLO, but high variance does not mean low profitability. PLO games are some of the softest around.
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very interesting.
cool
i love krantz lol
nice post, pretty trivial though
why different sites on different stakes
that graph tells me as much as the equilibrium graph in my high school in economics class
FTP and Stars avg pot size differes a ton different because no HU tables on Stars and HU tables on FTP??
[...] unknown wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptComing from a no-limit hold‘em background, I wasn’t quite sure what to expect when I sat down at my first heads up PLO match. I knew PLO had a reputation of having a ton of variance. I figured that the downswings are probably going to … [...]
PLO is just a boring game in ring format.
Thats like saying masturbation is just a boring game in ring format.
“Being on the downside of variance often leads to tilt – learn to master your emotions”
If only it was as easy as reading a book… not that it won’t help, it just that mashing the “Bet Pot” is soooo much damn fun, and when on a down swing AND on tilt, ohhh baby that thing gets me every time. Maybe doing a deep breath ten count prior to hitting it would help, but six tabling makes that difficult!!
what is the reason for recommending Full Tilt for microstakes? Looser games than Stars?
Very interesting.
I’d like to see a graph showing PLO/NLHE evolution of popularity
Are you Gugel from 2p2?
I Believe full tilt reduced their rake for micro stakes, i read that somewhere but cannot quote a source.