by thesquirrel » Thu Sep 02, 2010 8:20 pm
It does depend how you think about the question. For instance do you mean what are the chances on the next hand you will receive KK against someone else's AA or do you mean what are the chances of someone holding aces when you are dealt kings? If it's the latter there is a one in 204 chance of a specific player being dealt aces when you have kings (or vice versa). If there are 4 at the table beside yourself, divide by four. Therefore that is a 1 in 51 chance or 50-1. Chances of being dealt any specific pair is 1 in 221 or 220-1. If you have kings that leaves 50 cards in the deck. Chances of an ace followed by an ace for another player will be 4 over 50 times 3 over 49. That is 12 over 2450. Just over 1 in 204. Divide the 204 by 4.
If you say on the next hand or any specific given hand what are the chances of you being dealt kings while an opponent is dealt aces that would be 1 over 221 times 1 over 51, which is over 11,000-1.
It's after 2.0 am and I just got back from Luton after going all in with AQ clubs against a kid with QK, with the kid hiting the king on the river, but I think I have my math right.
PS - if you're talking about being an observer and seeing AA v KK on the next hand or specific hand then it's slightly different. Would be 8 (4 kings and 4 aces) over 52 times 3 over 51. Then for one of the other players to have the other pair it would be 1 over 51 as before. That means 24 over 2652 divided by 5 (the 5 players at the table), then multiplied by 1 over 51. So 110 (half of 221 = 110.5) divided by 5, times 51. That means one over 22 times 51. Which is one over 1122 or 1121-1. But I will stand corrected if someone wishes to disagree.